Environment and Disaster Management › Climate science
हिन्दी — Read in HindiExtreme weather, monsoon and forecasting
Weather and its extremes, the monsoon and the ocean patterns that drive it, heatwaves, cyclones, cloudbursts and lightning, and the forecasts and radars that meet them. Prelims has asked about the Finance Commission's recommendations on disaster funding.
Foundation note: Disasters: the notified calamities and the warning chain
Showing 3 of 8 articles, those that changed from 1 to 30 June 2026.Show all
Mission Mausam
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Mission Mausam is the Ministry of Earth Sciences programme, launched in 2024, to widen India's observing network, sharpen its models and take up weather modification research.
- Phase one built most of the network the country now warns from.
- A second phase runs from 2026 to 2031 through six verticals, of which weather modification is one.
- Its targets are set for 2030: forecasts 10 to 15 per cent more accurate, and hazard forecasts on a 5 km grid reaching every household.
- The Bharat Forecast System is the model at its centre.
The Doppler radar and the hills
- A Doppler weather radar sends out a microwave pulse and reads the echo from raindrops, snow and hail, which tells it where precipitation is and how heavy.
- The Doppler shift in that echo gives the speed at which the drops move, so the radar reads the wind inside a cloud.
- Scanning every few minutes, it follows a storm as it builds, which is what turns a forecast into a warning.
- In the hills a ridge blocks the beam and the valley behind goes unwatched, while a radar placed high enough to see over ridges passes above the low cloud dropping the rain.
- A cloudburst builds and empties within the hour, so a gap in cover is a warning that never comes.
What changed
5 Jun 2026BriefIMD's seventh Regional Meteorological Centre opened at Jammu for Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh, and Lucknow followed for Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Doppler radars rose from 17 in 2014 to 50, with about 100 planned within two years. PIB, 5 Jun 2026: Dr. Jitendra Singh Launches India's Seventh Regional Meteorological Centre in Jammu (opens in a new tab) · PIB, 8 Jun 2026: UP CM Yogi Adityanath and Union Minister Dr Jitendra Singh jointly Launch New Regional Meteorological Centre at Lucknow (opens in a new tab)
Show history (1 other update)
22 Jul 2026
- The Bharat Forecast System now runs operationally at a horizontal resolution of 6 km, against about 12 km for the older global model.
- It issues forecasts for a cluster of panchayats rather than a district.
- Warnings travel as Common Alerting Protocol alerts through the SACHET app.
PIB, 22 Jul 2026: PARLIAMENT QUESTION: BHARAT FORECAST SYSTEM (opens in a new tab) · PIB, 22 Jul 2026: PARLIAMENT QUESTION: IMPLEMENTATION OF MISSION MAUSAM (opens in a new tab) · PIB, 23 Jul 2026: PARLIAMENT QUESTION: IMPLEMENTATION OF MISSION MAUSAM (opens in a new tab)
Background reading: Ministry of Earth Sciences, 5 Aug 2026: Mission Mausam: aims, phases and strategy (opens in a new tab)
Monsoon onset over Kerala
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Monsoon onset over Kerala is the monsoon's arrival over Kerala, declared by the India Meteorological Department only after 10 May and only when three tests are met.
- Rain: at least 60 per cent of 14 designated stations in Kerala, Lakshadweep and coastal Karnataka record 2.5 mm or more of rain on two consecutive days.
- Wind: westerly winds extend to about 4.5 km (600 hPa) over the southeast Arabian Sea at 15 to 20 knots.
- Cloud: outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) falls below 200 W/m² over 5 to 10°N, 70 to 75°E, a sign of deep cloud.
- The tests rule out a false pre monsoon onset.
- The monsoon then advances north in surges and normally covers the country by mid July.
- Onset date has little bearing on total seasonal rain.
How IMD declares onset
After 10 May
No declaration is made before this date
Rain
At least 60 per cent of 14 stations record 2.5 mm or more on two consecutive days
Wind
Westerlies extend to about 4.5 km over the southeast Arabian Sea
Cloud
Outgoing longwave radiation falls below 200 W/m²
Onset declared
The monsoon has set in over Kerala
What changed
4 Jun 2026New
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared onset over Kerala on 4 June, three days after the normal date of 1 June and five days past the upper bound of its own forecast of 26 May plus or minus four days.
- It is the first miss beyond the error margin since 2015; the forecast was otherwise right every year from 2005 to 2025.
The Hindu, 4 Jun 2026: Monsoon sets in over Kerala three days late amid concerns over El Nino impact (opens in a new tab) · The Indian Express, 4 Jun 2026: Southwest monsoon hits Kerala, IMD forecasts heavy rainfall until June 7 (opens in a new tab)
See also: The 2026 monsoon and El Niño
Heat stress in India
Copy link to Heat stress in IndiaPrelims and Mains
LeadHeat stress in India, and the cooling paradoxJune 2026
Why in news
Studies published in June 2026 found that humid heat is spreading in India beyond the summer into the monsoon, and that India has more cities among the world's most heat vulnerable than any other country. India's peak power demand reached a record in May, much of it for cooling.
Background
- Heat stress is the net heat load on the body. It depends on temperature, humidity, wind and radiation, and not on temperature alone.
- The body cools itself by sweating. When the air is humid, sweat does not evaporate and the cooling fails.
- A heatwave is declared by the India Meteorological Department on temperature. Humid heat can be dangerous at temperatures well below that threshold.
- Heat risk has three parts: exposure to the hazard, the vulnerability of the people exposed, and their capacity to cope.
What the studies found
- Uncompensable heat stress, in which the body cannot cool itself at all, now affects about 8 per cent of India in summer.
- At 2°C of global warming it could affect more than half the country, in the monsoon as well as the summer.
- The northwest and the Gangetic plain will see humid heat in the monsoon months.
- Fourteen Indian cities are among the world's fifty most heat vulnerable; Ahmedabad is second.
- Across the world the warmest nights are warming faster than the warmest days, which denies the body its recovery.
Who is most exposed
- Outdoor workers, and people in slum housing without ventilation, power or water.
- Children: a United Nations Children's Fund report gives India the highest score for children's exposure to extreme heat.
The cooling paradox
- Cooling protects people from heat, but air conditioners draw fossil power and use hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), gases with a high global warming potential.
- So cooling a room warms the planet, and the city outside the room.
- Under the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol, India freezes its HFC consumption in 2028 and cuts it in phases until 2047.
- The India Cooling Action Plan of 2019 aims to cut cooling demand and refrigerant demand over two decades.
The way forward
- Put passive cooling first: cool roofs, shade, ventilation and building design.
- Make efficient appliances and low warming refrigerants the default.
- Extend Heat Action Plans to cover humid heat and warm nights, and not only daytime temperature.
- Protect outdoor workers through changed working hours, water and shade.
Prelims facts
- The Kigali Amendment is to the Montreal Protocol, and deals with HFCs.
- HFCs do not deplete ozone but have high global warming potential.
- India freezes HFC consumption in 2028.
- The India Cooling Action Plan dates from 2019.
Heat risk is not temperature alone: it depends on humidity, radiant heat and wind, and on who is exposed and how they can cope. Summer heat stress concentrates in the Indo Gangetic plain and the coasts, driven by high temperatures and pre monsoon moisture from the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon heat stress is humid, arriving at moderate temperatures of 35 to 38°C when humidity is high, especially during monsoon breaks. An Oxford study of 205 cities over a million people placed 14 Indian cities in the global top 50 for heat vulnerability, more than any country, Ahmedabad second and Nagpur fourth, scoring hazard, vulnerability and coping capacity.
- Mains: Passive cooling and low energy fans should be the first line of heat adaptation, since dependence on air conditioning raises power demand, refrigerant leaks and waste heat that warm the city further.
1970s versus now
| 1970s | Now | |
|---|---|---|
| People with at least 90 days of strong heat stress | 55 per cent | 70 per cent |
| People with at least one day of extreme heat stress | 16 per cent | 22 per cent |
What changed
23 Jun 2026LeadHeat stress in India, and the cooling paradox
See also: Heat Action Plans · Cooling and the Kigali Amendment
Also filed elsewhere
- Forest fires · on Forests, grasslands and mountain ecosystems
Forest fires in India are tracked through alerts that the Forest Survey of India (FSI) reads off satellite passes.
- Heat Action Plans · on India's climate policy: NDCs, net zero and adaptation
Extreme heat is met city by city rather than nationally, which is at once the strength of the instrument and its limit.