2014 · Q53
The scientific view is that the increase in global temperature should not exceed 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial level. If the global temperature increases beyond 3 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, what can be its possible impact/impacts on the world?
- 1.Terrestrial biosphere tends toward a net carbon source.
- 2.Widespread coral mortality will occur.
- 3.All the global wetlands will permanently disappear.
- 4.Cultivation of cereals will not be possible anywhere in the world.
Select the correct answer using the code given below.
- (a)1 only
- (b)1 and 2 only
- (c)2, 3 and 4 only
- (d)1, 2, 3 and 4
Show answer and explanationHide answer and explanation
- Statement 1 is correct. The terrestrial biosphere is at present a net carbon sink, absorbing roughly a quarter of anthropogenic emissions, but that sink weakens and can reverse with warming, because soil and plant respiration respond more strongly to temperature than photosynthesis does, because drought and heat reduce productivity, and because thawing permafrost and increased fire and dieback release stored carbon. Beyond about three degrees the projections converge on the land becoming a net source, which is the classic positive feedback.
- Statement 2 is correct. Reef-building corals bleach when thermal stress causes them to expel their zooxanthellae, and widespread mortality is projected at warming well below three degrees, so at three degrees it follows a fortiori.
- Statement 3 is incorrect. The claim that all global wetlands will permanently disappear is an absolute that no projection supports; wetlands will be altered, and coastal wetlands squeezed by sea level rise, but a total and permanent global loss is not a scientific finding.
- Statement 4 is incorrect for the same reason: cereal yields are projected to fall in the tropics and low latitudes, but poleward shifts and carbon dioxide fertilisation mean that cultivation somewhere in the world is not in question. The official answer is (b). The governing principle is that statements 3 and 4 are both unqualified absolutes, and (b) is the only option omitting both, so the item is decidable without any command of the climate science.
Moderate · Current Affairs Inspired · Ecology and Environment · Climate Change, Ozone and Land Degradation