Environment › Climate science

Extreme weather, monsoon and forecasting

Weather and its extremes: the monsoon and the ocean patterns that drive it, heatwaves, cyclones, cloudbursts and lightning, and the forecasts, radars and warnings that meet them. Prelims has asked about the Finance Commission's recommendations on disaster funding.

Showing 2 of 8 subjects, those that changed from 1 to 15 July 2026.Show all

The 2026 monsoon and El Niño

Prelims and Mains

El Niño is the warm phase of the equatorial Pacific and is usually, though not always, linked to a weaker Indian monsoon. Events are graded weak, moderate, strong or very strong, and neither the World Meteorological Organization nor the India Meteorological Department recognises a "Super El Niño" category. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can offset El Niño. The Department has used a Multi Model Ensemble of coupled models for its seasonal forecast since 2021.

What changed

30 Jul 2026Update
- El Niño was weak in June and moderate in July. The mean error of the seasonal forecast fell to 2.2 per cent of the Long Period Average for 2021 to 2025, from 7.8 per cent for 2016 to 2020.
PIB, 30 Jul 2026: PARLIAMENT QUESTION: IMPACT OF EL NINO ON INDIAN MONSOON (opens in a new tab) · PIB, 29 Jul 2026: PARLIAMENT QUESTION: LONG RANGE FORECAST SYSTEM (opens in a new tab)
25 Jul 2026Update
- The monsoon covered the country on 9 July. A very heavy spell over Gujarat brought July to normal (215.5 mm against 215 mm), but the season deficit from 1 June to 24 July was still 16.1 per cent.
The Hindu, 25 Jul 2026: Gujarat deluge erases monsoon deficit, but overall rain still low (opens in a new tab) · PIB, 22 Jul 2026: PARLIAMENT QUESTION: RAINFALL DEFICIT (opens in a new tab)
1 Jul 2026New subject
- June closed with an all India rainfall deficit of about 40 per cent. The 99.5 mm received was the fifth lowest for June since 1901, and no low pressure system formed over the Bay of Bengal that month.
The Hindu, 25 Jul 2026: Gujarat deluge erases monsoon deficit, but overall rain still low (opens in a new tab)

Landslide early warning

Prelims and Mains

About 13 per cent of India's land, roughly 0.42 million sq km, is prone to landslides, and warning systems for them exist as scattered pilots rather than as a national network tied to an evacuation protocol.

What changed

11 Jul 2026New subject
- About 13 per cent of India's land, roughly 0.42 million sq km, is prone to landslides.
- A fortnight before the Wayanad disaster of 2024, landslides in the Munnar hills caused no deaths because the district evacuated people on the advice of a research team testing a warning system.
Mains: the gap is institutional, since warning systems exist as scattered pilots rather than as a national network tied to an evacuation protocol.
The Indian Express, 11 Jul 2026: Landslide early warning systems work, and India has already shown it, but they exist only at a few pilot sites (opens in a new tab)

Also filed elsewhere

Forest fires · on Forests, grasslands and mountain ecosystems
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Science and Technology, Environment, Forests and Climate Change, in its 412th report, found no study linking climate change to rising Himalayan forest fires, and what the range does have is two fire seasons with different causes.
Heat Action Plans · on India's climate policy: NDCs, net zero and adaptation
Extreme heat is met city by city rather than nationally, which is at once the strength of the instrument and its limit.