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Showing 3 of 8 articles, those that changed from 1 to 30 September 2026.Show all
The 2026 monsoon and El Niño
Copy link to The 2026 monsoon and El NiñoPrelims and Mains
LeadA dry monsoon under a strong El NiñoSeptember 2026
Why in news
The southwest monsoon ended on 30 September 2026 at 87 per cent of the long period average, the driest season in 11 years, and Maharashtra declared drought in 265 of its 358 talukas on 26 September.
- 87 per centof the long period average: 759.4 mm against 868.6 mm
- 13thdriest monsoon since 1901
- 282districts deficient, over 38 per cent of the country's area
- 265 of 358talukas of Maharashtra declared drought hit
Background
- The long period average (LPA) is the average monsoon rainfall over 1971 to 2020, and a season counts as normal when it falls between 96 and 104 per cent of it.
- El Niño is the abnormal warming of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific, which suppresses Indian rainfall, while La Niña favours it.
- El Niño is declared on the Niño 3.4 index, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which stood at +2.51°C.
Why the season was uneven
- Low pressure systems from the Bay of Bengal were active on 77 days against a normal 57, which kept central India wet despite El Niño.
- The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a band of rain bearing clouds with a period of 30 to 60 days, stayed unfavourable over the south, so every southern State ended in deficit.
- Inside Maharashtra the deficit was 18 per cent, but Marathwada was 38 per cent short and Vidarbha 27 per cent, both rain shadow regions.
Drought and flood in the same season
- Odisha ended with a 29 per cent excess, brought by 11 Bay of Bengal systems one after another, which left the soil saturated and turned each new spell into runoff.
- A deep depression meeting a Western Disturbance flooded Uttar Pradesh in the last week of September, as the monsoon was withdrawing.
What lies ahead
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects El Niño effects until at least March 2027.
- A strong El Niño generally favours a wetter northeast monsoon over the southern peninsula, though not in every such year.
- Long duration arhar flowers in October and fills its pods in November, so a dry spell then causes terminal moisture stress, and low soil moisture may hold back rabi sowing.
The way forward
- Build drainage for repeated intense downpours, since one day and five day rain bursts are becoming more common even as heavy rain days decline.
- Act on the forecast in crop planning: short duration pulses, millets and oilseeds where the season is expected to fail.
- Document the ecological effects of this El Niño, as 188 Indian scientists have asked, since a coral reef needs about a decade to recover from bleaching.
Prelims facts
- The LPA is calculated over 1971 to 2020; normal is 96 to 104 per cent of it.
- A Western Disturbance is an east moving extra tropical cyclone that gathers moisture from the Mediterranean, Black, Caspian and Arabian Seas and is carried by the subtropical westerly jet stream.
- The Indian Ocean Dipole can dampen or amplify El Niño's effect on India.
- The MJO moves with a period of 30 to 60 days.
El Niño is the warm phase of the equatorial Pacific and is usually, though not always, linked to a weaker Indian monsoon.
- Events are graded weak, moderate, strong or very strong; neither the World Meteorological Organization nor the India Meteorological Department recognises a "Super El Niño" category.
- The phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is set by the sea surface temperature anomaly over the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific.
- Above +0.5°C is El Niño and below −0.5°C is La Niña, and episodes usually peak in the northern winter.
- A positive Indian Ocean Dipole can offset El Niño.
- The Department has used a Multi Model Ensemble of coupled models for its seasonal forecast since 2021.
What changed
30 Sep 2026LeadA dry monsoon under a strong El Niño
23 Jun 2026
- With rainfall 43 per cent below normal, the Centre identified 315 vulnerable districts and set up an El Niño Monitoring Cell and a Crop Weather Watch Group.
- It shifted advice to short duration pulses, millets and oilseeds.
Mains: India must move from rain centric to water centric farming and coordinate cropping and inter State water use on extended El Niño forecasts.
PIB, 23 Jun 2026: Centre Reviews Kharif Preparedness Amid El Niño Concerns; Shivraj Singh Chouhan Holds High-Level Meeting with States (opens in a new tab) · The Hindu, 25 Jun 2026: Razor's edge: On the progress of the southwest monsoon (opens in a new tab) · The Indian Express, 25 Jun 2026: Why India may be better prepared this time to withstand a poor monsoon (opens in a new tab)
Drought declaration
Copy link to Drought declarationPrelims and Mains
India has no single definition of drought, and it is the State government that declares one.
- To draw central funds, a State's report must follow the norms of the National Disaster Response Fund.
- The norms look at rainfall deficit, the moisture adequacy index, crop loss, sowing below half the usual area, falling groundwater, and shortage of drinking water and fodder.
- A central team verifies the report before money is released.
How drought is declared and funded
Rainfall deficit and dry spell
Trigger-1
Panchnamas by Collectors
State report to NDRF norms
Central team verifies
Funds released
What changed
29 Sep 2026New
- Maharashtra declared drought on 26 September in 265 of 358 talukas under its Drought Management Code, 2016.
- The Code's first alert stage, Trigger-1, rests on rainfall deficiency and a dry spell of at least 21 days.
- Collectors then begin panchnamas, field surveys of crop condition, and compensation for crop loss follows these surveys.
The Hindu, 29 Sep 2026: Why has Maharashtra declared drought in 265 talukas and what do farmers get? | Explained (opens in a new tab) · The Indian Express, 23 Sep 2026: Maharashtra is parched, but here's why drought can't be declared before October (opens in a new tab)
Swell surge
Copy link to Swell surgePrelims
A swell surge is coastal flooding caused by ocean swell that was generated far away, by a distant storm or a long gale.
- The swell usually forms in the southern Indian Ocean, travels thousands of kilometres and reaches the coast in two or three days.
- Fishermen in Kerala call it kallakadal.
- The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) issues the alerts, and southern Kerala and Kanyakumari are hit first.
What changed
28 Sep 2026New
- INCOIS issued a red alert for Kerala and southern Tamil Nadu.
- Such alerts usually come before the monsoon, but this year El Niño kept monsoon seas calm, so distant swell stood out.
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